Smith tracked potential shifts in migration due to changing wetlands conditions. He built a mechanistic model of bird migration (i.e. the physics and energetics of flying) and coupled that with the impacts of changing resource availability along flyways. First he defined a “climate space” (based on air temperature and solar radiation) that shows where and when migration can occur; then he added a component based on the energetics of flying to create an individual-based model of daily migration routes that “simulates the migration routes, timing and energy budgets of individuals birds under dynamic weather and land surface conditions.” He also incorporates “evolutionary learning” by including behavioral responses to the landscape, and allowing the top performers to become the breeders at the end of a season.

It surely says something about me that (with reservations) I think this is very cool! It’s always neat to have this sort of cross-disciplinary stuff: modeling the energetics of an individual is such a physicist way of thinking about movement ecology. It also doesn’t hurt to have the computing power of NASA. There’s been plenty said about the coming convergence of computing power, neural networks, and the human brain. As computers become more powerful, and our ability to model evolutionary and ecological processes improves, I think we’ll be provided with incredibly useful tools to study conservation.

Of course, field biologists will be, rightfully, crying foul: nature is incredibly complex and while it may follow certain patterns, the details are nearly impossible to define. Smith’s model doesn’t include multi-species interactions (e.g. competition and predation); it also didn’t appear to predict the fact that his study species, the Pectoral Sandpiper, is a frequent migrant to the UK. No doubt that tug of war between folks in the field and modelers will continue, but there’s a balance to be struck. Models like this, by people removed from the traditions of the field, can help to expose previously-ignored pressure points in ecology. I think the word I’m looking for is “refreshing.”