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or monitoring the discussion being help this week here. The Designing the Parks initiative is sponsored by the National Park Service, UVA, and a mess of NGOs. In a conference earlier this year they attempted to “to assess lessons learned through an examination of park planning and design history” and, come December, they will reconvene in San Francisco to hash out a picture of the future look of our parklands. The latter is the topic of the current online forum. White it’s aimed primarily at landscape architects, we certainly can’t leave them to their own devices.
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Ordonez gave an overview of species distribution modeling and had a nice slide on all the different programs that help model such things: Bioclim, Domain, Biomapper, Maxent, Garp, Grasp, Species, Biomod, and others. He also referred to a paper (Elith et al., Ecography 2006) that tested the various programs. My own work these days is focusing somewhat on species distribution modeling, but I have to admit the whole practice makes me nervous. We already have a word for this science: it’s called “ecology,” the study of the distribution and abundance of species. The fact that we smaller set of ecologists have developed a new word for it suggests that we’ve decided to ignore much of ecology — and evolution — in order to simplify the process. And that’s exactly what we’ve done.
The basic approach in species distribution modeling / habitat suitability modeling is you collect occurence data for the target species, collect spatially-explicit environmental variables that might determine the limits of the species’ range, and then model where you would expect to find the species in your study area. In general, it works okay (no models are real, some are good, &c &c). It can be useful, especially in conservation, when rigorous surveys aren’t feasible. But people have been using these methods to model current distribution, and then predict range shifts based on climate change. As with yesterday’s biophysics approach to modeling flyways, such a study ignores things like behavior and adaptation. What limits the current generation might not do so in other conditions.
As a scholar of the checkerspot butterfly, Weiss is concerned that the macroclimatic models of climate change are irrelevant to species with small home ranges. His talk presented methods for down-scaling climate data to model mesoclimates (1-100km), topoclimates (10m to 1km) and microclimates. By using iButtons (tiny, cheap, climatic sensors viagra generic online — we’re using them at my field site in Carrizo and despite being
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